Immigration Message Testing

Methodology

‍We tested multiple positive, contrast, and negative immigration messages with Blue Rose Research to see which was best at shifting Biden vote choice. These messages were tested in English only. The test ran from March 28 to April 5 in AZ, CO, FL, GA, MI, NV, NM, NC, OH, PA, TX, and WI. We collected a total of 17,098 survey responses, with over 60% of responses coming from Latinos.

Recommendations

• Tell voters about Trump's immigration plans for 2024 using his own policies and own words wherever possible.
  • Criticizing Republicans for playing politics with the border is also effective.
• Where positive messaging is needed, focus on Biden’s “balanced approach.” Pair safety, order and security with fair, humane treatment and legal pathways.
  • Don’t just message on securing the border.

Overall Findings

• Negative messages perform best, especially those that highlight Trump’s plans for 2024 and criticize Republicans for playing politics with the border. This suggests that information that clearly outlines Trump’s extreme hardline immigration policies and his overt racism towards immigrants are not already baked into voters’ decision for 2024. These messages also “stick to the facts,” using Trump’s own policies and own words wherever possible.
  • “... Trump’s plans to use the National Guard from Republican-controlled states to round up every last undocumented immigrant in the country in “large-scale raids” and put them in internment camps near the border.”
  • Donald Trump “recently said that immigrants are “animals” and “not people,” and that they’re “poisoning the blood of our country…” He’s promised to use local police to carry out mass deportations of people who have been here for decades…”
  • “Republicans… voted against the bipartisan bill [because] Donald Trump told them he wanted to keep chaos at the border because it helps him politically…”
• The most effective positive message among Latinos focused on a “balanced approach that will make our country safer, make our border more secure, and will treat people fairly and humanely while preserving legal immigration.”
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• The least effective positive message among Latinos focused on President Biden “fighting for the toughest set of reforms to secure the border we’ve ever had in our country.” This message was also the least effective overall for the full sample.
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• Contrast messages seemed to perform slightly better than positive messages, but not as well as negative messages.
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• The two best performing contrast messages combined elements from the best testing positive message and the best testing negative messages.
  • “... President Biden is fighting for policies that will make our country safer, make our border more secure, and will treat people fairly and humanely while preserving legal immigration, consistent with our values as a nation. Instead of prioritizing solutions, Republicans would rather see the chaos and cruelty at the border continue for their own political gain.”
  • “President Biden… supports policies like expanding access to legal immigration and pathways to citizenship for immigrants who were brought here as children. Instead, Republicans support policies that would deport millions of people who have been living and working here for decades.”
• All the messages were effective across racial groups, but they were especially effective among Black and Latino voters, 18-34 year olds, moderates, and people who did not vote in 2020.