Latino Update October 2024

Methodology: 1,298 registered Latino voters in AZ, GA, NC, NV, MI, PA, WI. MoE is ~2.7%

Big Picture

Harris has for the first time taken a slight advantage among Latino voters on being “better for the economy” compared to Trump, an under-current to a contest that otherwise looks steady on the surface. 

In a poll of registered Latinos fielded October 4 - 18, Harris continues to lead Trump among Latino voters in the presidential battleground, 55% - 38%, virtually unchanged from the 54% -38% margin in a late September poll.

After imputing the vote of undecideds, the Hispanic vote is currently at 59% - 41%. That puts Harris a few points shy of Biden’s 2020 support levels in these same states, estimated at 62% by Catalist. 

Harris support has been stable since an initial reset in Latino support when she became the nominee. 

There is relatively little variation between key states: 

• Arizona: 55-39 
• Nevada: 54-40 
• Pennsylvania: 55-36

Job Approval and Favorability

Harris continues to swim upstream of Biden’s job approval (44% approve, 51% disapprove, or -7) and favorability (48-49). Harris wins a majority of those who “somewhat” disapprove of Biden, 56-28, but 10% of those who strongly disapprove. 

Mirror-image favorability ratings for Trump (underwater at 40-56, or -16) and Harris (positive at 55-40, or +15) further suggest the presidential vote is fairly entrenched. However, under the hood, we continue to see about 10% of registered Latinos still at least somewhat persuadable.

Voting

‍82% of respondents indicate they are almost certain they will vote in this year’s election, essentially the same as what we saw in the late September survey. Half of the respondents indicate they will vote early (32% by mail and 18% early in person) while 45% say they will vote in person on election day. 

But the pattern varies among partisans, in a way that will make it difficult to interpret early vote figures: Some 62% of Latinos who support Harris say they'll vote early. A nearly equal share (60%) of Latinos who support Trump say they plan to wait until Election Day; 50% of the remaining swing Latinos say the same.

Attributes & Issues

‍The economy and cost of living continue to dominate the issue landscape for Latino voters. For the first time, Harris has a slight advantage on being “better for the economy” compared to Trump 49-46 (+4). In an August survey, Trump had a +3 edge on this issue. She has also improved her margin on being a “strong leader” (+6) compared to Trump – an area in which Biden, as nominee, had lagged significantly. 

Harris’s core strengths – “caring about people like you” (+25) and “better for middle and working class families” (+22) have risen slightly compared to earlier polling. Being "better for Hispanics" (+25) continues to anchor her here. She has also grown her advantage on “keeping me and my family safe” (+14) and holds a steady edge on “having the right approach to immigration” (+13) among Latino voters in the presidential battleground. The one place where Trump edges Harris out is on being “better for men” (+6); meanwhile, Harris has a massive advantage on being “better for women” (+35). 

Gender

There is a wide gender gap among Latino voters, as with other voters in the electorate. In this survey, Harris does 16 points better among Latina women (61-31, or 66% two-way for Harris) than Hispanic men (47-47, or 50%). 

The gap is widest among the youngest Latinos, where there is a 29 point difference in Harris support (82%  vs. 53%). A key to such a wide divide: young men have a fundamentally different sense than young women of which candidate is the “stronger leader”. The young Latino men say Trump by a +23 margin. The young Latinas say Harris, by a +39 margin. 

Ideology

Some 25% of self-identified conservative Latinos continue to support Harris. By comparison, only 9% of "liberal" Latinos are going for Trump. Harris leads among moderates, 60-33. While 2020 showed signs of "ideological sorting," where Latino voters were starting to more closely align ideology and party, many of the old cross-pressures remain in force.