Trump made gains with Latinos, those gains did not decide Trump victory

Results call for reckoning, but Latino mandate is clear: focus on the economy  

Following last night’s Presidential election, Equis Research Co-Founders, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio released the following statement: 

“We are gravely concerned about the conversation and rhetoric surrounding Latino voters. What happened in this election is larger than Hispanics alone. Last night’s results signal a need to contend with the reality of Latino voters. But there is much getting lost in the conversation that is critical for the press and both parties to clearly understand. 

The magnitude of the gains Trump made in places like New York, New Jersey, and Texas – states that don't decide the presidential race – were surprising and point to deeper discontent and broader trends. 

But the support Trump received among Latinos in the battleground states should not have been a surprise to anyone who was paying attention. Those shifts were present in polling throughout the cycle and since the early days of the Biden presidency. Harris ultimately had the support she needed with Latinos to win, if all else held according to plan. 

Yes, Trump did make big gains with Latinos, but those gains are not what decided his victory. What happened in this election is larger than Latinos - Trump’s win came from a broader erosion of support in key battleground states. Latinos in the battleground states are a critical part of winning but they do not alone determine the outcome. 

Blaming the outcome of this election on the Hispanic electorate is simply not supported by the electoral math in the Blue Wall states. To say otherwise is not only irresponsible, it is bad political analysis.

Republicans similarly should not take the wrong lessons from this. Trump should not misread any gains in Latino votes as support for his full agenda - in fact quite the opposite. The Latinos who did move to Trump were clear: they want him to bring down prices. They rejected Project 2025, and told us repeatedly in focus groups and polling that they didn't believe he would do any of the things his opponents said he would, from banning abortion to repealing Obamacare to deporting long-term immigrants like Dreamers. They voted for Trump because they believed he would prioritize the economy over all else, just as they did in voting for him. He resonated with working Latinos who believed he would help them care for their families. If there is a mandate, it is that: to focus on the economy and bring down prices. And that’s what these voters are going to hold him to.

All in all, this moment also calls for a reckoning among the Democrats  and those who claim to represent the interests of the Latino community, men across race, and the working class. We need to be clear-eyed about the economic and cultural divide that led some Latinos to Trump. Any blame should be pointed at elites, not at the voters themselves who weren’t being listened to until it was too late.

Latinos have proved they are and will continue to be a true wildcard in our politics. What happened in this election does not come to pass without years of neglect that finally came to a head. There is time to fix it, if there is the will and a new era of leadership to move us forward.”

Other key data points: 

• Most Latinos, including most Latino men in most battleground states, voted against this reality. In particular, Latinas, like many other women, voted to protect each other’s freedoms and turn the page from the madness of the Trump era. And they’re going to face some of the worst consequences. 
• You only need to look at Hispanic support for Ruben Gallego in Arizona, and other down-ballot Democrats, to know that shifts among Latinos were about Donald Trump -- not about Republicans -- and that the GOP cannot assume they are guaranteed these levels of support going forward. 

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