For Swing Latinos, a Tale of Two Economies

In this battleground poll fielded August 19th - August 31st, Equis checked in on the preferences of Latino voters in the presidential race and looked at some perceptions of the candidates.  

This survey – fielded after the DNC convention but before the Sept. 10 Harris/Trump debate – provides some insights into the dynamics shaping the vote today. (It would not capture any post-debate movement.)

A growing share of Latino voters appear locked into their vote, but the gettable voters who remain could help determine the outcome in various states in this very close election. For Trump to pick up a few points among Latinos who value his "strong man / businessman" persona he would need to surmount their overwhelming perception he doesn't work on their behalf. Harris enjoys major advantages with persuadable Hispanics, starting with precisely the belief that she will look out for people like them. Whether she can consolidate or even expand her lead comes down to whether her campaign can address these voters’ outstanding doubts, and whether this reassurance will be enough to also drive them to the polls.

Some takeaways:

1. Harris's lead among Latinos was stable from early to late August; she remains a few points shy of the 2020 mark.

‍Harris led Trump 56-38 (+18) in the seven battleground states in late August, virtually unchanged from the 56-37 in a July 22 - August 4th Equis poll. Both figures represent a vast improvement for Democrats compared to the 46-41 Biden/Trump margin from early June. 

• Harris was viewed favorably by 58% of registered Latinos, compared to 37% who held an unfavorable view of her. She was underwater in Equis polling as recently as April.
• Harris leads across gender, albeit higher among Latina women (60-34) than men (51-43).
• In this poll, Harris was polling four points shy of Biden's 2020 Latino support in the battleground (using in-poll measures). But there was state variation: while she was six points shy of Biden’s 2020 mark in Georgia, she was two points shy in Pennsylvania and only a point off in Nevada. She remained three points back in Arizona.

2. What "economy" are we talking about?

‍The terms on which the economy is defined and contested over the last 50 days could determine whether Trump lands above or below 40% among Latinos. Will the election be a referendum on who is "better for the US economy"? Or on who cares/delivers for "middle and working class families"?

• Some 52% of registered Latinos in the survey named the economy or cost of living as their top issue in an open-ended question.
• Trump had a narrow +3 edge on who Latino voters believe is "better for the US economy." It is the attribute on which Trump was strongest in this and previous surveys. In October 2023, for example, Trump was leading Biden on this measure by a +6 margin. 
• Harris did, however, have a slight +2 edge over Trump in this poll on which of them "is a strong leader." In October 2023, it was Trump who led Biden on that attribute (by a +5 spread).
• Meanwhile, in this poll Harris also had a +21 edge on who is “better for middle and working class families and a +26 advantage on who "cares about people like you" — which pick up different elements of the economy, along with other considerations that include reproductive rights.

3. Harris campaign’s economic proposals are very popular.

Voters in focus groups repeatedly say they want to hear more about Harris’s economic agenda. We tested elements of her “Opportunity Economy” and found them to be quite popular, with all above 70% support — none of the other economic measures we previously tested in polling this cycle have tested nearly as high. 

• Expanding the child tax credit was the most popular Harris policy overall, the second-most popular among swing Latinos, and the most popular among Latino men.
• Providing opportunities for first-time homeowners to afford a home was the most popular measure among persuadable Latinos.
• Among those who think Trump would be "much better" for the US economy, three policies get majority support: capping prescription drug prices (60%), expanding the child tax credit (56%) and paid family leave/childcare funding (54%). (Among those who think Trump would be "somewhat better" for the US economy, all Harris policies get between 75 - 85% support.)

4. A deeper look at cross-pressures:

A glance at that slice of Latinos who approve of Trump’s first-term performance but currently support Harris further gives a sense of the cross-pressures acting upon them – and what attributes ultimately keep them with Dems.

• Trump’s retrospective job approval was higher than his recent support, at 45 approve - 52 disapprove, driven by views on the economy and perceptions of strength.
• And indeed those who approve of Trump's job but currently support Harris think Trump would be better for the economy by +15 points and a stronger leader by +8. But they believe by a larger margin that Harris would be better for middle/working class families (+50), has the better approach on immigration (+50) and, especially, cares more about people like them (a whopping +75 margin).

5. Harris's approach to immigration is favored over Trump's.

In this poll, Harris was more trusted on immigration than Trump (51-38, or +13). That represents a big change from an Equis poll in May that showed Trump with an edge over Biden in that issue area (44-36, or +8, in the 7 battleground states, and 41-38, or +3, in the full sample. The latter figure was touted at the time by Breitbart, NewsMax, and Axios.)

6. The runway seems to be shortening for both sides, but some uncertainty remains.

Our new, refined definition of “swing” excludes voters who at this stage either seem unlikely to vote or seem to reliably prefer one candidate across measures. That leaves a small but critical 8% of registered Latinos as persuadable. These persuadable Latinos are more likely to speak Spanish at home than other Latinos. They are somewhat more likely to be over 30, and a bit more likely to be married/partnered. They are not significantly different from other Latinos in terms of gender.

• But uncertainty remains on the margins: Trump regained his edge among Latinos who were registered in 2020 but didn’t vote — a particularly fluid subset of the electorate who in this poll favored Trump 50-40. Harris offset that shift by widening her advantage with new registrants, those Latinos who were newly added to the voter rolls since the last presidential election. She leads with new registrants 63-32 (+31).
• Meanwhile, the vote choice of 2020 voters who would be returning in 2024 remained the same in late August as it was earlier in the month.