Equis 2022 Fall Election Memo
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To: Interested Parties
From: Equis Research
Re: Latino Voters in Limbo - A Midterm Update
Date: September 19th, 2022
The Latino vote remains stuck in the 2020 moment. Many Latino voters who in past elections have voted with Democrats are today persuadable — but Republicans have so far failed to win them over.
For Democrats and their allies, there is a strategic need to contend with the ways in which things might still get worse for their candidates if they do not get ahead of the trend.
Republicans haven't fully convinced persuadable Latino voters that they are a viable alternative to Democrats, even in the midst of an economic crisis.
For Democrats, the task is to alleviate the concerns of Latinos who are worried that the party doesn't share their perspective on the economy.
The economy is top of mind for Latino voters, as for all voters. Two other issues that are coloring the political environment — gun safety and abortion rights — are potential weaknesses for Republicans among Latino voters. Democrats have opportunities here, but run the risk of seeming out-of-touch themselves if they hyper-fixate on these issues ahead of economic concerns.
The question of the Latino vote looms large over elections up and down the ballot, and especially over the battle for the US Senate — and not just in Las Vegas. As much as we talk in terms of national trends, midterm results will likely lend themselves to a diversity of narratives about Hispanic voters.
For all the stories about different segments of Latino voters, the uncertainty — and potential — cuts broadly across the electorate right now. However, we do see certain demographics jump out as we try different ways to identify voters who aren't stuck to their current voting preferences: young Latinos, Latino men of all ages, and ideological hold-outs.
Some of the highest undecided rates are among those Latinos who prefer to communicate in Spanish. For all the talk of a Republican push for Latinos, Democrats are outspending the GOP in Spanish-language ads, and it has had an effect in polling. But the investment is still not where it could be, and there are lots of uncommitted Spanish-speakers left to compete for.
It is factually inaccurate and strategically misguided to presume that lies found online are solely or even mostly to blame for the shifts in the Latino vote. Disinformation is best thought of and addressed as a problem for democracy, not for Democrats. In the political arena, Democrats — and Republicans — should instead worry about voters receiving one-sided communication, whether those narratives are truthful or not, and focus on meeting voters where they consume information.
Equis is a set of organizations working to create a better understanding of Latinos, innovate new approaches to reach and engage them, and invest in the leadership and infrastructure for long-term change and increased engagement.
The analysis on this memo relies on Equis polling, digital testing, and focus groups over the last year, starting with our Key States Series: state-level polls in 10 states between December 2021 and August 2022, totaling more than 16,000 interviews.
The research used in this memo was conducted in partnership with EMC Research, GBAO, Normington Petts, Searchlight Research, TargetSmart, and Castillo & Associates. Additional data provided by Catalist. Economic messaging recommendations based on an Equis poll conducted by Avalanche Insights, and on work from the Winning Jobs Narrative and Somos Votantes.
We work toward a more sophisticated understanding of the experiences, issue preferences, and political identities of Latino and Hispanic voters.
Equis is a set of organizations working to create a better understanding of Latinos, innovate new approaches to reach and engage them, and invest in the leadership and infrastructure for long-term change and increased engagement.